Working papers
Books
Journal articles
Book chapters
Reports, media articles, etc
Current working papers
“Synthesis of evidence yields high social cost of carbon due to structural model variation and uncertainties” (with Frances Moore, James Rising, Moritz Drupp, Ivan Rudik and Gernot Wagner)
“Optimal climate policy under exogenous and endogenous technical change: making sense of the different approaches” (with Leo Coppens and Frank Venmans), CESifo Working Paper 11059, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Paper 408, 2024 (download)
“Optimal climate policy as if the transition matters” (with Emanuele Campiglio and Frank Venmans), CESifo Working Paper 10139, Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper 412, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Paper 387, 2022 (download)
“Growth and adaptation to climate change in the long run” (with Bruno Lanz), CESifo Working Paper 7986, 2019, Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper 411, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Paper 386, 2022 (download)
“A representation result for choice under conscious unawareness” (with Oliver Walker), Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper 68, Munich Re Programme Technical Paper 10, and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Paper 59, 2011 (download)
Books
Handbook of Sustainable Development (co-edited with Giles Atkinson, Eric Neumayer and Matthew Agarwala), Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2nd edition, 2014 (link to Elgaronline)
— first edition 2007
The Political Economy of the Environment: an Interdisciplinary Approach (co-edited with Jonathan Michie and Christine Oughton), Abingdon: Routledge, 2011 (link to publisher’s page)
Journal articles
“Economic impacts of melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet” (with Felix Koninx), Nature Communications, 13, 5819 (2022) (link to journal)
“Food system development pathways for healthy, nature-positive and inclusive food systems” (with Franziska Gaupp et al.), Nature Food, 2, 928–934, 2021 (link to journal)
“How ambitious are oil and gas companies’ climate goals?” (with Dan Gardiner, Valentin Jahn and Jolien Noels), Science, 374(6566), 405-408, 2021 (link to journal)
“Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system” (with James Rising, Thomas Stoerk and Gernot Wagner), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(34), e2103081118, 2021 (link to journal)
“Are economists getting climate dynamics right and does it matter?” (with Rick van der Ploeg, Armon Rezai and Frank Venmans), Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 8(5), 895-921, 2021 (link to journal)
“Eight priorities for calculating the social cost of carbon (with Gernot Wagner, David Anthoff, Maureen Cropper, Kenneth Gillingham, Ben Groom, Paul Kelleher, Frances Moore and James Stock), Nature, 590, 548-550, 2021 (link to journal)
“Pricing ambiguity in catastrophe risk insurance” (with Falk Niehoerster), Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 46(2), 112-132, 2021 (download)
“The endowment effect, discounting and the environment” (with Frank Venmans), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 97, 67-91, 2019 (download)
“Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: in search of general principles” (with Frank Venmans), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 96, 108-129, 2019 (download)
“Ambiguity and insurance: capital requirements and premiums” (with Oliver Walker), Journal of Risk and Insurance, 86(1), 213-235, 2019
“An assessment of climate action by high-carbon global corporations” (with Charles Fruitiere, Carlota Garcia-Manas, William Irwin, Bruno Rauis and Rory Sullivan), Nature Climate Change, 8, 1072-175, 2018 (download)
“The economics of 1.5°C climate change” (with Alex Bowen, Baran Doda, Ajay Gambhir and Rachel Warren), Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 43, 18.1-18.26, 2018 (download)
“Economic growth and agricultural land conversion under uncertain productivity improvements in agriculture” (with Bruno Lanz and Tim Swanson), American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 100(2), 545–569, 2018 (download)
“The climate beta” (with Christian Gollier and Louise Kessler), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 87, 258-274, 2018 (download)
“The expansion of modern agriculture and global biodiversity decline: an integrated assessment” (with Bruno Lanz and Tim Swanson), Ecological Economics, 144, 260-277, 2018 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
“Global population growth, technology, and Malthusian constraints: a quantitative growth theoretic perspective” (with Bruno Lanz and Tim Swanson), International Economic Review, 58(3), 973-1006, 2017 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
“The risk of climate ruin” (with Oliver Bettis and Nick Silver), Climatic Change, 140(2), 109-118, 2017 (download)
“Domestic politics and the formation of international environmental agreements” (with Carmen Marchiori and Alessandro Tavoni), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 81, 115-131, 2017 (download)
“‘Climate Value at Risk’ of global financial assets” (with Alex Bowen, Philip Gradwell and Charlie Dixon), Nature Climate Change, 6, 676-679, 2016 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
“Weighing the costs and benefits of climate change to our children” (with Ben Groom and Billy Pizer), The Future of Children, 26(1), 133-155, 2016 (link to journal) (download published manuscript)
“Spaces for agreement: a theory of Time-Stochastic Dominance and an application to climate change” (with Nicoleta Anca Matei), Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 3(1), 85-130, 2016 (link to journal) (download published manuscript)
“Tall tales and fat tails: the science and economics of extreme warming” (with Raphael Calel and David Stainforth), Climatic Change, 132(1), 127-141, 2015 (download)
“Adaptation to climate change and economic growth in developing countries” (with Antony Millner), Environment and Development Economics, 20(3), 380-406, 2015 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
“Endogenous growth, convexity of damages and climate risk: how Nordhaus’ framework supports deep cuts in carbon emissions” (with Nicholas Stern), Economic Journal, 125(583), 574-602, 2015 (download)
“Climate change mitigation as catastrophic risk management”, Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 56(6), 28-36, 2014 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
“Benefit-cost analysis of non-marginal climate and energy projects” (with Cameron Hepburn), Energy Economics, 40, 61-71, 2013 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
“Scientific ambiguity and climate policy” (with Antony Millner and Geoffrey Heal), Environmental and Resource Economics, 55(1), 21-46, 2013 (link to journal)
— winner of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE) award for Outstanding Publication in the journal Environmental and Resource Economics, 2013
“Vulnerability to weather disasters: the choice of coping strategies in rural Uganda” (with Jennifer Helgeson and Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler), Ecology and Society, 18(2), 2, 2013 (download)
— reprinted in William P. Butz, Wolfgang Lutz and Jan Sendzimir (eds.) Education and Differential Vulnerability to Natural Disasters, Laxenburg: IIASA, 2014 (download)
“The treatment of risk and uncertainty in the US social cost of carbon for regulatory impact analysis”, Economics e-Journal, 6, paper no. 2012-18, 2012 (download)
“Climate policy under sustainable discounted utilitarianism” (with Geir Asheim), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 63(3), 321-335, 2012 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
“High impact, low probability? An empirical analysis of risk in the economics of climate change”, Climatic Change, 103(3), 519-541, 2011 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
“Strategic appraisal of environmental risks: a contrast between the UK’s Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change and its Committee on Radioactive Waste Management” (with Alec Morton), Risk Analysis, 31(1), 129-142, 2011 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
— recipient of a “Best Paper of 2011” award from Risk Analysis
“The equity-efficiency trade-off in environmental policy: evidence from stated preferences” (with Giles Atkinson), Land Economics, 86(3), 423-443, 2010 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
— reprinted in Kenneth G. Willis and Guy Garrod (eds.) Valuing Environment and Natural Resources, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2012 (link to publisher’s page)
“Environmental prices, uncertainty and learning” (with Sam Fankhauser), Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 26(2), 270-284, 2010 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
“New frontiers in the economics of climate change” (with David J. Maddison), Environmental and Resource Economics, 43(3), 295-306, 2009 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
“Siblings, not triplets: social preferences for risk, inequality and time in discounting climate change” (with Giles Atkinson, Jennifer Helgeson, Cameron Hepburn and Hakon Saelen), Economics e-Journal, 3, paper no. 2009-26, 2009 (download)
“On the timing of greenhouse gas emissions reductions: a final rejoinder to the symposium on “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review and its Critics”” (with Nicholas Stern), Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 3(1), 138-140, 2009 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
“Why economic analysis supports strong action on climate change: a response to the Stern Review’s critics” (with Nicholas Stern), Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2(1), 94-113, 2008 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
“Right for the right reasons: a final rejoinder on the Stern Review” (with Dennis Anderson, Nicholas Stern, Chris Taylor and Dimitri Zenghelis), World Economics, 8(2), 229-258, 2007 (link to journal) (download pubished manuscript)
“Some economics of ‘dangerous’ climate change: reflections on the Stern Review” (with Chris Hope and Nicola Patmore), Global Environmental Change, 17(3-4), 311-325, 2007 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
“The impacts of climate change: perspectives from the Stern Review”, The Brown Journal of World Affairs, 13(2), 173-184, 2007 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
“Reflections on the Stern Review (1): a robust case for strong action to reduce the risks of climate change” (with Chris Hope, Nicholas Stern and Dimitri Zenghelis), World Economics, 8(1), 121-168, 2007 (link to journal) (download published manuscript)
“Corruption, the resource curse and genuine saving” (with Eric Neumayer and Indra de Soysa), Environment and Development Economics, 12(1), 33-53, 2007 (link to journal) (download published manuscript)
“Weak and strong sustainability in the SEEA: concepts and measurement” (with Eric Neumayer), Ecological Economics, 61(4), 617-626, 2007 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
“Public perceptions of equity in environmental policy: traffic emissions policy in an English urban area” (with Giles Atkinson), Local Environment, 10(4), 445-459, 2005 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
“Genuine savings: a critical analysis of its policy-guiding value” (with Eric Neumayer), International Journal of Environment and Sustainable Development, 3(3/4), 276-292, 2005 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
“Economic growth, biodiversity loss and conservation effort” (with W. Neil Adger), Journal of Environmental Management, 68(1), 23-35, 2003 (link to journal) (download accepted version)
Book chapters
“Strategic decarbonisation options for the UK” (with Sam Fankhauser), in Francesco Caselli, Alexander Ludwig and Rick van der Ploeg (eds.) No Brainers and Low-Hanging Fruit in National Climate Policy, London: CEPR Press, 2021 (download)
“Locking in climate vulnerability: where are the investment hotspots?” (with Charlie Dixon and John Ward), in Sam Fankhauser and Tom McDermott (eds.) The Economics of Climate Resilient Development, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2016 (link to publisher’s page)
“Cost-benefit analysis”, in Philipp Pattberg and Fariborz Zelli (eds.) Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Governance and Politics, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2015 (link to publisher’s page)
“From efficiency to justice: utility as the informational basis of climate change strategies, and some alternatives”, in John Dryzek, Richard B. Norgaard and David Schlosberg (eds.) The Oxford Handbook of Climate Change and Society, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011 (link to publisher’s page)
“The Stern Review”, in Stephen H. Schneider, Michael Mastrandrea and Terry H. Root (eds.) The Encyclopedia of Climate and Weather, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011 (link to publisher’s page)
“Environmental challenges of the twenty-first century and the need for an interdisciplinary political economy” (with Jonathan Michie and Christine Oughton), in Simon Dietz, Jonathan Michie and Christine Oughton (eds.) The Political Economy of the Environment: an Interdisciplinary Approach, Abingdon: Routledge, 2011 (link to publisher’s page)
“Economics and the governance of sustainable development” (with Eric Neumayer), in W. Neil Adger and Andrew Jordan (eds.) Governing Sustainability: Essays in Honour of Tim O’Riordan, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009 (link to publisher’s page) (download accepted version)
“Economics, ethics and climate change” (with Cameron Hepburn and Nicholas Stern), in Kaushik Basu and Ravi Kanbur (ed.) Arguments for a Better World: Essays in Honour of Amartya Sen (Volume 2: Society, Institutions and Development), Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009 (link to publisher’s page) (download accepted version)
“Introduction” (with Giles Atkinson and Eric Neumayer), in Giles Atkinson, Simon Dietz and Eric Neumayer (eds.) Handbook of Sustainable Development, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2007 (download)
“Progress in the measurement of sustainable development” (with Giles Atkinson), in Welfare Economics and Sustainable Development, edited by Yew-Kwang Ng and Ian Wills, Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems, developed under the auspices of the UNESCO, Oxford: EOLSS Publishers, 2007 (download)
“A critical appraisal of genuine savings as an indicator of sustainability” (with Eric Neumayer), in Phil Lawn (ed.) Sustainable Development Indicators in Ecological Economics, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2006 (link to publisher’s page) (download accepted version)
– reprinted in Joan Martinez-Alier and Inge Ropke (eds.) Recent Developments in Ecological Economics, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2008 (link to publisher’s page)
“Some constructive comments on the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare” (with Eric Neumayer), in Phil Lawn (ed.) Sustainable Development Indicators in Ecological Economics, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2006 (link to publisher’s page) (download accepted version)
Selected reports, media articles, etc.
A full list of TPI publications is available here. A selection is included below, as well as other reports, media articles, etc.
The Economics of the Food System Transformation (with Caterina Ruggeri Laderchi, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Fabrice DeClerck et al.). Food System Economics Commission (FSEC), Global Policy Report, 2024 (download)
Banks and the Net Zero Transition: Tracking Progress with the TPI Net Zero Banking Assessment Framework (with Sidonie Commarmond et al.), London: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, September 2023 (link)
Carbon Performance Assessment of Steelmakers: Discussion Paper (with Ali Amin et al.), London: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2023 (link)
A Framework to Assess Sovereign Bond Issuers on Climate Change: Consultation Report (with Antonina Scheer et al.), London: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2023 (link)
Carbon Performance Assessment of Food Producers: Discussion Paper (with Eleanor Harvey et al.), London: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2022 (link)
What Will Climate Change Cost the UK? Risks, Impacts and Mitigation for the Net Zero Transition (with James Rising, Marion Dumas et al.), London: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2022 (link)
Carbon Performance Assessment of Other Industrials: Discussion Paper (with Nikolaus Hastreiter et al.), London: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2021 (link)
“Four key measures to implement Britain’s Net Zero Strategy” (with Sam Fankhauser), LSE British Politics and Policy, 29th October 2021 (link)
TPI State of Transition Report 2021 (with Beata Bienkowska et al.), London: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2021 (link)
“What does the circular economy have to do with meeting climate goals?” (with Nikolaus Hastreiter, Antonina Scheer and Beata Bienkowska), LSE Business Review, 11th March 2021 (link)
“The oil and gas industry will need to scale back much faster to limit warming to 1.5°C” (with Dan Gardiner, Valentin Jahn and Rory Sullivan), LSE Business Review, 10th February 2021 (link)
Carbon Performance Assessment in the Diversified Mining Sector: Discussion Paper (with Annabel Farr et al.), London: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2021 (link)
TPI State of Transition Report 2020 (with Rhoda Byrne et al.), London: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2020 (link)
“Steering the climate system: an extended comment” (with Linus Mattauch et al.), Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper 347 and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Paper 315, 2019 (download)
— a revised version has been published as Mattauch, L., H.D. Matthews, R. Millar, A. Rezai, S. Solomon and F. Venmans (2020) “Steering the climate system: comment”, American Economic Review, 110(4), 1231-1237 (link to journal)
TPI State of Transition Report 2019 (with Rhoda Byrne et al.), London: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2019 (link)
“Critical reflections on carbon performance in high carbon emitting companies” (with Rory Sullivan), Responsible Investor, 21 November 2018
Carbon Performance Assessment in Oil and Gas: Discussion Paper (with Carlota Garcia-Manas et al.), London: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2018 (link)
“The economics of 1.5°C climate change”, EAERE Magazine, no. 3, October 2018 (download)
The State of Transition in the Coal Mining, Electricity and Oil and Gas Sectors: TPI’s Latest Assessment (with Carlota Garcia-Manas et al.), London: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2018 (link)
“The low-carbon transition in autos and paper”, Responsible Investor, 14 February 2018
“Introducing the Transition Pathway Initiative” (with Adam Matthews, Rory Sullivan and Faith Ward), Responsible Investor, 22 June 2016
The Effects of Climate Change on Financial Stability, with Particular Reference to Sweden (with Alex Bowen), Report for Finansinspektionen (The Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority), Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, February 2016 (download)
“Declare robust timetable for action on subsidies” (with Jeffrey Sachs and others), Financial Times, 13 November 2015 (also appears in the Jakarta Post, the South China Morning Post, Le Monde and El Pais)
“Critical minerals today and in 2030: an analysis for OECD countries” (with Renaud Coulomb, Maria Godunova and Thomas Bligaard Nielsen), OECD Environment Working Papers, No. 91, OECD Publishing, Paris (download), 2015
Non-Economic Losses in the Context of the UNFCCC Work Programme on Loss and Damage (with Sam Fankhauser and Philip Gradwell), Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, Policy Paper, February 2014 (download)
“Carbon tax v cap-and-trade: which is better?” (with Luca Taschini and Naomi Hicks), Guardian’s Ultimate Climate Change FAQ, 2013 (link)
“Why do we see unilateral action on climate change?” (with Carmen Marchiori and Alessandro Tavoni), Vox, 5 December 2012 (link)
“Report on Kerry Smith’s keynote lecture to EAERE2012: valuing nature in general equilibrium”, EAERE Newsletter, Autumn 2012 (link; EAERE members only)
“Why do economists describe climate change as a ‘market failure’?” (with Alex Bowen and Naomi Hicks), Guardian’s Ultimate Climate Change FAQ, 2012 (link)
“Why does climate change get described as a ‘stock-flow’ problem?” (with Naomi Hicks), Guardian’s Ultimate Climate Change FAQ, 2012 (link)
Comments on “Climate Risks and Carbon Prices: Revising the Social Cost of Carbon”, Economics for Equity and the Environment (E3 Network), 2011 (download)
Climate Change Scenarios: Implications for Strategic Asset Allocation (with Danyelle Guyatt and a team from Mercer, the Grantham Research Institute and Vivid Economics), February 2011 (link)
“Thinking through the climate change challenge” (open letter with Robert Hahn, Alistair Ulph and others), Vox, 16 January 2011 (link)
Adaptation in the UK: a Decision-Making Process (with Nicola Ranger, Antony Millner, Sam Fankhauser, Ana Lopez and Giovanni Ruta), Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, Policy Brief, September 2010 (download)
“Still wary of Bjorn Lomborg’s pronouncements on climate change” (with Alex Bowen, Bob Ward and Dimitri Zenghelis), The Guardian, 2 September 2010 (link)
“Ambiguity is another reason to mitigate climate change” (with Antony Millner and Geoffrey Heal), Vox, 1 September 2010 (link)
A Long-Run Target for Climate Policy: the Stern Review and its Critics, supporting research for the UK Committee on Climate Change’s inaugural report Building a Low-Carbon Economy – the UK’s Contribution to Tackling Climate Change, 2008 (link to the CCC) (download)
Review of the Methodological Approaches Available for Setting Carbon Budgets (with Paul Watkiss, Will Blyth, Tom Downing, Alistair Hunt and Ken Fletcher), report to the UK Committee on Climate Change, Oxford: Paul Watkiss Associates, 2008 (link to the CCC) (download)
Review of DEFRA paper “The Social Cost Of Carbon And The Shadow Price Of Carbon: What They Are And How To Use Them In Economic Appraisal In The UK”, peer review for the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, 2007 (download)